The International Energy Agency says the oil market is moving back towards surplus as Gulf exports recover, although diesel supplies remain tight and shipping security continues to threaten the outlook.
In its report published on 13 November, the agency estimates that global oil supply increased by 2.3 million barrels a day in October to 105.4 million barrels a day. Its latest balance points to a surplus in the fourth quarter, followed by a larger build in 2027.
Observed inventories rose by 52 million barrels in October. That increase masks a continuing decline in stocks held on land: the rebound was driven by oil at sea, rather than a broad replenishment of storage.
The IEA forecasts a 2.7 million-barrel-a-day fall in demand during 2026, followed by growth of 2 million barrels a day next year. It cautions that attacks on shipping could disrupt the recovery. These are agency estimates and forecasts, not confirmed future production or consumption.
Source: IEA Oil Market Report, 13 November 2026.
Image credit: Illustrative oil-shipping file photograph: crude tanker Arsan at Rotterdam, Netherlands, 17 July 2016. This is not a photograph of current Gulf operations or an incident. Alf van Beem / Wikimedia Commons, public domain (author release). Resized and converted to WebP.
By Energy People.
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